Wednesday, 18 April 2012

Has the bank of England lost it?

Has the bank of England lost it? And what is "it"? Well I think the 'it' is the balance in the economy and the reason I mention "it" is the publishing of the latest minutes of the MPC.

It looks to me that inflation is starting to be a real concern especially after the latest numbers saw an increase last month to 3.5%. The committee seems perplexed about the weakness in various sectors considered core to the economy - but why? Basically they and most of the G7 have debased a huge chunk of the world's currency. That surely sparked inflation and more importantly for the UK has lifted costs for many input commodities that the average man has taken for granted during the period of the strong pound. So now what. Well clearly so long as jobs don't crater that's the end of QE. If my assumption is right, buy GBP and sell the FTSE?

Europe remains sick. I don't care how many JPY the Japanese print and give to the IMF. Look at today. Italy ran up the white flag and cut its 2012 growth forecast while simultaneously doing a Gordon Brown and changed it's own rules on a balanced budget. So this year they'll shrink by 1.2% v. the f/c of -0.4% previously. Well I guess that in a way it was priced in but not the changing of the balanced budget f/c. Normally this is where I'd say short the EUR etc. . . . but even my dog has stopped listening to me:

So on to more enjoyable things. I managed to pump out 50k's on a new route up one of my usual hills. I'm not sure any of you use Strava to record your exercise routine, but I like it. What I'd like to point out is the segment feature. Basically the Strava team via its users have setup various segments of interest that allow you to compare yourself to other riders or runners. In my case this morning's new segment shows me as sadly the slowest rider on the "Impasse Des Peupliers Climb", though I take some solace in the fact I am also the heaviest and oldest to have completed the climb! So all's not too bad?

The fastest rider is 15 years younger and 30kgs lighter, so I'm not overly concerned that he beat me by 12mins. It's still fun to compare. Kind of like comparing Europe to the US .... on second thoughts maybe that's not fun?

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