Thursday, 1 March 2012

Wild times and snow . . .

Sorry no entry yesterday, but I let time get away from me as watched the reaction to Bernanke's testimony before congress. Gold's 100 buck fall just proved to me again that it's a crowded trade now.

If the US manages anything like 3% growth then game over for QE, which leads me to wonder where to from here? I fundamentally believe the SnP is over valued, but it reminds me more and more of the Nikkei and its various flirtations with bull market valuations in the face of the real world.  Check out the chart of the N225 since 1984, now forget that it's at third of its peak. Check out the rallies. I think the SnP is in one of those rally patterns and it's just sucking in the 99% unwilling to park their money in insolvent banks. Keep an eye on this.

I spent the morning skiing one of may favourite slopes - Courmayeur. It was near enough to 10 degrees Celsius at 2000m, so it was a bit like skiing through custard. Still it was a great day.

I should mention that I did a short 37k on the bike yesterday to keep up my average.

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